Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
— First Shot —
Ed. Note: After covering more than 200 election results across Florida, we figured the Florida Politics team earned a breather. So, there will be no Sunburn on Friday. We’re taking a quick post-election timeout and will be back Monday morning, rested, recharged and ready to burn again.
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Gov. Ron DeSantis is promising rural Florida a state-funded safety net if voters approve November’s property tax amendment, arguing residents of fiscally constrained counties shouldn’t fear losing police or essential services in exchange for a larger homestead exemption. The measure would raise the exemption to $150,000 next year and $250,000 in 2028.
Florida has 29 fiscally constrained counties, largely rural communities with small populations and limited tax bases. The Florida Association of Counties warns that some could lose between one-fifth and one-third of their revenue under the amendment. DeSantis dismisses the statewide impact as “budget dust.”
He says lawmakers could address those losses during a Special Session implementing the amendment. Even his earlier, broader proposal affecting school taxes would have cost roughly $200 million annually, DeSantis noted, compared with a $117 billion state budget and an $18 billion surplus.
But Florida’s fiscal outlook complicates that argument. State economists previously projected a roughly $3.8 billion surplus for 2026-27, followed by deficits estimated at $1.5 billion and $6.6 billion over the next two years.
Polling presents another wrinkle. A Sachs Media survey found 65% support for the recently revised ballot language, up from 60% for the original version. Other surveys show support falling when voters are told local government revenues and services could take a hit.
Sheriffs, police and firefighters oppose the amendment, warning it threatens essential services. DeSantis is betting tax relief will stimulate rural economies enough to eventually reduce their reliance on state subsidies. For voters, the question is increasingly straightforward: Is a bigger property tax break worth shifting more responsibility for keeping some local governments afloat to Tallahassee?
— Evening Reads —
—“In a big year for progressives, here’s why these moderates won their Primaries” via Bayliss Wagner of The New York Times
—“Donald Trump wants a ballroom in Ireland. One man is having a ball fighting it” via Terrence McCoy of The Washington Post
—“Resistance 1.0 was not crazy” via Jonathan Chait of The Atlantic
—“Flock cameras are everywhere — and people really, really hate them” via Avishay Artsy and Sean Rameswaram of Vox
—“Flock has a powerful new AI tool for police. We got its code” via Ohruv Mehrotra and Dell Cameron of WIRED
—“Are Democrats on a Summer sugar high?” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin
—“‘Master of chaos’: Ashley Moody links Angie Nixon to radicals and riots” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—“National Dems go all in on flipping Anna Paulina Luna’s reshaped seat” via Shauna Muckle of the Tampa Bay Times
—“Jay Collins lost big — but he did win 14 counties in North Florida and 15 overall” via Mitch Perry of the Florida Phoenix
—“‘Help for rural’ coming if Amendment 3 passes, Governor says” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
— Quote of the Day —
“Our budget’s $117 billion. Our surplus is $18 billion. Are you telling me we can’t spare a couple hundred million?”
— Gov. Ron DeSantis, on helping rural counties if Amendment 3 passes.
— Put it on the Tab —
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Lobbyist Ron Book just landed his second professional honor in a week, so forget putting another award on the shelf — celebrate with a Millionaire after another very good week.
Just 393 votes separate Joe Strada and Carey Baker in CD 11, with a recount looming, so this razor-thin race calls for a Photo Finish.
The DCCC just put Leela Gray in its Red to Blue program as Democrats eye another Florida pickup, so toast the attempted color change with a red-to-blue American Pie.
— Breakthrough Insights —
— Tune In —
Hosts with the most
The Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all host preseason NFL games this weekend.
The Jaguars entertain the Carolina Panthers on Friday (7:30 p.m. ET, WJAX).
Jacksonville beat the New Orleans Saints 24-20 on Saturday to open the preseason. None of the Jaguars’ starters played in that game; however, head coach Liam Coen said this week that it is “trending toward us potentially playing Friday night a little bit with the ones.”
Coen previously indicated that the starters might not play at all in the preseason, but a lack of full-pad practices changed his mind, at least for this week’s game.
The Dolphins host the New York Giants on Saturday (4 p.m. ET, NFL Network). Miami opened the preseason with a 20-7 loss to the Washington Commanders in Jeff Hafley’s debut as Miami’s head coach. Hafley said the starters are unlikely to play on Saturday, preferring they get their work in during Thursday’s joint practice with the Giants.
The Buccaneers host the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, WFLA). The Bucs topped the New York Jets on Friday to open the preseason. Head coach Todd Bowles said that he expects the starters to play about eight to 15 snaps, including quarterback Baker Mayfield.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
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