For the third straight Tuesday, several states are holding major primaries. Here’s a rundown.
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Alaska
Alaska primaries advance the top four candidates to the November general election, with ranked choice voting.
Governor: Open (Mike Dunleavy, R, is term limited)
Alaska’s top-four primary system and its sprawling, bipartisan field make this a hard race to handicap. The Republican field includes former state Sen. Click Bishop, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, state Revenue Commissioner Adam Crum, Mat-Su Borough Mayor Edna DeVries, former state Sen. Shelley Hughes, former Attorney General Treg Taylor, and businesswoman and former radio host Bernadette Wilson. Democrats have two credentialed candidates in the race—former state Sen. Tom Begich, whose brother is former Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Begich; and former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, popularly known as JKT. Also running as an independent is former Gov. Bill Walker.
The Almanac of American Politics Substack rates this contest Lean Republican.
U.S. Senate: Dan Sullivan, R
Sullivan hasn’t done anything to make himself particularly vulnerable, especially in generally red Alaska. But the state’s strongest Democrat, former Rep. Mary Peltola, is in the race, and the polls are showing a close general election contest, with Peltola often leading. Both candidates will be well funded, with much of the money coming from outside the state. Sullivan has established himself as the pro-oil, pro-military candidate, while Peltola’s brand is more moderate, with “what’s good for Alaska” messaging that echoes that of the state’s other senator, Republican Lisa Murkowski. Like Murkowski, Peltola should have strong support from Alaska Native voters. Will the presence of another Dan Sullivan on the ballot cause enough confusion to drain votes from the incumbent? It’s hard to know.
The Almanac of American Politics Substack rates this contest Lean Republican.
U.S. House At-Large: Nick Begich, R
Nick Begich is favored to win reelection. No major Democrat is left in the race; Anchorage pastor Matt Schultz, who had been running as a Democrat, withdrew and endorsed former Bristol Bay School Superintendent and commercial fisherman Bill Hill, who is running as an independent. Hill has some backing from unions, teachers and tribal leaders. Nick Begich is the nephew of Tom Begich, the gubernatorial candidate running as a Democrat.
California
House District 14 special election (Open; Eric Swalwell, D, resigned)
This is the runoff to fill the scandal-tarred Swalwell’s seat for the rest of the current Congress. It will feature the same two candidates who will face off in November for the full term: Democratic state Sen. Aisha Wahab and Democratic transit board member Melissa Hernandez.
The 14th District is composed of East Bay towns in southern Alameda County. The district includes Hayward, which is among the most ethnically diverse cities in the nation, and Union City. In 2024, Kamala Harris won it with 65 percent.
Florida
This will be the first primary after Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map earlier this year. The House seat analysis below leans heavily on the congressional vulnerability rankings I published in the Tampa Bay Times last month.
Governor: Open (Gov. Ron DeSantis, R, is term-limited)
Rep. Byron Donalds remains the GOP primary frontrunner, bolstered by Trump’s endorsement; he has a strong edge in fundraising and organization, although he has taken heat for a refusal to debate his rivals. The rest of the GOP field includes former Republican House Speaker Paul Renner, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and conservative influencer James Fishback. Collins was appointed to his post by DeSantis but has not received his endorsement; neither he nor Renner has attracted much public or media attention, whereas Fishback has received more coverage for his controversial comments and appeal among some young voters.
On the Democratic side, GOP-turned-Democratic Rep. David Jolly is the frontrunner, though state Rep. Dotie Joseph, a Haitian American, announced a late candidacy. Florida has zoomed rightward in recent years, and the state Democratic Party now faces a 1.5 million-person-plus deficit in voter registration. Donalds remains the favorite to become Florida’s next governor, but Democrats still have an outside chance for an upset if there is a major blue wave in the state. Donalds has led Jolly by the mid- to high single digits in recent polls.
The Almanac of American Politics Substack rates this contest Likely Republican.
Chief Financial Officer: Blaise Ingoglia, R
Ingoglia was appointed to his position by DeSantis and is now running for a full term. Former state Sen. Annette Taddeo is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, but assuming she gets it, she’ll face an uphill battle to oust Ingoglia.
Agriculture commissioner: Wilton Simpson, R
Attorney Joey Mendoza Atkins and police captain Don Prichard are running for the Democratic nomination, but whoever wins would be a heavy underdog to Simpson.
U.S. Senate: Ashley Moody, R
Moody, who was appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to the Senate when Marco Rubio was confirmed as secretary of state, remains in the driver’s seat in a state that has tilted hard red in recent election cycles. But the Democrats have a candidate with a national profile and the ability to raise money — Alex Vindman, who along with his twin brother Eugene (now a House member from Virginia) played a role in Trump’s first impeachment. Vindman faces state Rep. Angie Nixon in the Democratic primary.
Democrats, despite their voter registration deficit, could be poised to ride a double incumbency backlash against Trump and DeSantis. Polling has shown Moody up by the mid- to high single digits. If Democratic turnout in Florida ends up being strong, if independents swing hard to the Democrats, and if some Republicans cross over rather than sitting it out, the Senate race could become competitive. But that’s a lot of “ifs.”
The Almanac of American Politics Substack rates this contest Likely Republican.
House District 2: Open (Neal Dunn, R, is retiring in 2026)
Republicans have a large field in this solidly Republican district in northern Florida. Republican Party of Florida chair Evan Power is running, and attorney Austin Rogers has received several endorsements from congressional Republicans. Other candidates include businessman Keith Gross, pilot Lee Jones, insurance agency owner Nick Lewis, real estate broker Luke Murphy, Gulf County (Port St. Joe) School Superintendent Jim Norton, and retired police commander Audie Rowell. Democrats have four candidates, but whoever wins the nomination begins as a heavy underdog.
The 2nd District takes in portions of Leon County (Tallahassee) and Bay County (Panama City), accounting for 38 and 23 percent of the district’s population, respectively. The remainder of the district sprawls across all or part of 14 other lightly populated counties, including Franklin (Apalachicola), Gadsden (Quincy) and Madison (Madison). Trump won the district in 2024, 55%-44%. The Black population in the 2nd is 23 percent, but it’s too small to have a significant impact.
House District 4: Aaron Bean, R
The 12-point Trump cushion in Bean’s Jacksonville-area district makes him a clear favorite, but not an invincible one. Democrats are hoping former Jacksonville Ethics Commission Chair Michael Kirwan can run a competitive race.
The 4th District is centered in Duval County, which has a consolidated government with Jacksonville. In 2020, Trump lost Duval by 19,000 votes to Joe Biden in 2020 but carried it by nearly 7,000 in 2024 against Harris. Duval is shared by the 4th and 5th districts, with the portion in the 5th much more Republican. To the north and south of Duval are fast-growing Nassau and Clay counties, where Trump in 2020 won 70 percent of the combined vote; Clay accounts for 28 percent of the population in the 4th.
House District 7: Cory Mills, R
Mills is vulnerable because of a series of personal controversies. In February, Mills was investigated by Washington, D.C., police for allegedly assaulting a 27-year-old woman. The congressman “vehemently” denied it in a statement from his office, and the woman later denied any physical altercation; no charges were filed. In March, the House Ethics Committee opened a formal investigation into Mills over alleged omissions and misrepresentations in financial disclosure reports and for allegedly improperly maintaining contracts for his business with the federal government. An Army combat veteran, Mills has also grappled with questions about the events that led to the awarding of a Bronze Star.
Three Republicans are challenging Mills in the primary, including former news anchor Ryan Elijah, who has won endorsements from GOP Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos. Mills has chalked up weak fundraising totals and has debts to pay off.
Democrats, meanwhile, have a credible front-runner for the nomination: Bale Dalton, a former top NASA official and retired Navy officer. If Mills is the nominee, Democrats could have a shot of winning the relatively narrowly divided district, which was not changed by the 2026 redistricting. In fact, one internal Democratic poll showed Dalton edging Mills, 41%-39%, which is within the margin of error. Mills has faced increasing pressure to quit the race in recent weeks as other House Republicans, including Max Miller of Ohio and Chuck Edwards of North Carolina, also have faced major personal controversies.
The 7th District of Florida includes all of Seminole County (Sanford) and slightly more than half of Volusia County (Daytona Beach). Seminole, which accounts for about 60 percent of the total population, has become a key battleground county; Volusia is comfortably Republican. The 7th is a largely coastal district. Trump won the district, 52%-47%, in 2024.
House District 9: Darren Soto, D
The 2026 redistricting changed the 9th District dramatically, shifting it from a 51%-48% Harris district to a 58%-41% Trump district. The changes reduced the district’s Hispanic population (which is heavily Puerto Rican) from 50% to 36% and left Soto — the only Latino Democrat in the Florida delegation — with a far weaker chance of reelection. Among the Republicans vying for the seat are deep-pocketed businessman Thomas Chalifoux, who’s run for it before, and agricultural official Ben Butler, who has the backing of U.S. Reps. Kat Cammack and Greg Steube. Five other Republicans are running as well. While Soto is running again, the changes leave him a major underdog.
In the 2026 redistricting, the 9th District retained most of Osceola County (Kissimmee), though the county no longer accounts for a majority of the district’s population. The district includes portions of Orange, Polk, Indian River, Highlands, Okeechobee and Glades counties.
House District 11: Open (Dan Webster, R, is retiring)
The GOP field includes former state legislator Carey Baker and four other candidates.
The 11th District includes all of Sumter County (the Villages) and more than two-thirds of Lake County; together, they account for 52 percent of the district’s population. Orange County, with its Orlando-area theme parks, accounts for the remainder. The 2026 Republican redistricting made little change to the district; Trump defeated Harris, 57%-41%.
House District 12: Gus Bilirakis, R
Bilirakis has been reelected easily during his long career, but redistricting narrowed Trump’s win in the district from 67%-32% to 57%-42%. While this remains a comfortable cushion, Bilirakis may have to sweat more than he has in the past. Two Democrats are running: former Hillsborough County Commissioner Kimberly Overman and physician and veteran Darren McAuley. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee isn’t taking sides in the primary, but the committee recently added the 12th to its “districts in play” list.
The 12th District covers an area north of Tampa and St. Petersburg. In the 2026 Republican redistricting, Pasco County remained the district’s core; it also gained a large slice of northern Hillsborough County, running from Citrus Park to the northern outskirts of Tampa.
House District 13: Anna Paulina Luna, R
Democrats have a credible challenger in retired Army Brig. Gen. Leela Gray, though she must first get past two other Democrats in the primary.
The 13th District is located mostly within Pinellas County, with much of St. Petersburg, Clearwater and Largo, plus many of the beach communities on the barrier islands facing the Gulf of Mexico. Most of downtown St. Petersburg, however, shifted to the 16th. The 2024 presidential vote changed from a 55%-43% win for Trump to a 56%-43% win—the closest margin of any Republican-held seat in Florida that experienced changes from redistricting.
House District 14: Kathy Castor, D
Some of Castor’s solidly Democratic district was split into neighboring, Republican-held districts, changing its 2024 presidential vote from a 53%-45% Harris win to a 55%-44% Trump win. Despite this, Castor is running again and is getting support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “frontline” program, which aids vulnerable House Democratic incumbents. The Republican field includes former state Rep. Mike Beltran, state Rep. Kevin Steele and Bea Valenti, a former adviser to U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody. Castor has often overperformed the Democratic baseline and has strong name identification, but having run in safe seats previously, she will need to prove her mettle in a much more uphill contest. A recent poll had Castor leading Beltran and Steele by eight and seven points, respectively.
The Almanac of American Politics Substack rates this contest a Modest Republican Lean.
The 14th District is based entirely in Hillsborough County (Tampa) and has become relatively compact due to changes in the 2026 Republican redistricting.
House District 15: Laurel Lee, R
The 2026 redistricting changes aided Lee’s bid for reelection, but Democrats will make a run at the district. In the Democratic primary, retired CIA officer and Army veteran Chris Irizarry is facing off with Robert People, a fellow Army veteran.
The 15th District is an eclectic mix, reaching from the northern outskirts of Tampa to Hernando County (Spring Hill) and Citrus County (Homosassa Springs). Nearly half of the population is in those exurban counties, with a bit more than a third in mostly suburban portions of Hillsborough County. The 15th also includes the eastern portion of Pasco County. The changes strengthened the Republican cast in the 15th, increasing Trump’s 2024 victory from 55%-44% to 59%-39%.
House District 16: Open (Vern Buchanan, R, is retiring)
Even though the electoral impact was modest, this district changed substantially in geography. The GOP primary front-runner is Sydney Gruters, a former congressional staffer and New College of Florida official. Trump has endorsed her, and her marriage to Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters all but ensures a healthy flow of fundraising. Former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner and former TV news anchor Glenn Pearson are the most prominent Democratic candidates. The Democratic field also includes a pair of veterans: Jon Harris and Tamika Lyles.
The 16th District combines all of Manatee County (Sarasota) with St. Petersburg, plus some rural counties in central Florida. St. Petersburg is its largest city by far, but Manatee County remains the district’s population center, accounting for slightly more than half of the district. In the 2024 election, the vote for Trump would have fallen under the new lines from 57%-42% to 56%-43%.
House District 19: Open (Byron Donalds, R, is running for governor)
An article by CNN’s Steve Contorno recently cited a Republican describing the race to succeed gubernatorial frontrunner Donalds a “clown show.” For starters, two politicians from other states who left the House under clouds of controversy are now running here: Madison Cawthorn and Chris Collins. Then there’s frequent (and often unsuccessful) Illinois candidate Jim Oberweis, who ran in a previous race in the Land of Lincoln against Catalina Lauf, another candidate seeking to succeed Donalds. Ola Hawatmeh previously ran for office in New York, and Linda Sawyer previously ran in Michigan. Several MAGA activists are running, including pardoned Jan. 6 rioter John Strand (who has the backing of Turning Point Action, founded by the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk) and local radio station owner Jim Schwartzel. Despite all this, the potential Democratic nominees are untested, and the district is solidly Republican, making it likely that the GOP primary will effectively decide the race.
The 19th District occupies the southern half of the Gulf Coast below Tampa Bay. It includes about 80 percent of Lee County (Fort Myers) and half of Collier County (Naples and Marco Island). Both counties are staunchly Republican. Trump would have won the redrawn district 64%-34%, making it the second-strongest Republican performance in any district in Florida, trailing only the Pensacola-based 1st District.
House District 20: Vacant (Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, D, resigned)
This is the messiest Democratic primary produced by the 2026 redistricting. Long-serving Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz decided to run in this solidly Democratic seat, and that alienated leading Black politicians who wanted to run. But her critics could not narrow the field, which likely boosts Wasserman Schultz’s chances of winning. Other candidates are onetime rapper Luther (Uncle Luke) Campbell, former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, activist Elijah Manley and Cherfilus-McCormick herself, despite resigning earlier this year in the face of likely expulsion by the House on ethics charges, following a federal indictment.
The 20th is the only district based entirely in Broward County (Fort Lauderdale), which is a minority-majority county; the county’s Black and Latino populations have risen to 31 and 33 percent of the county’s population, respectively, with 33 percent of residents non-Hispanic white. Much of this growth stems from newcomers from Haiti, Jamaica and Colombia. Overall, the district is 42 percent Black and 23 percent Latino. Harris would have won under the new lines, 68%-31%.
House District 21: Brian Mast, R
Mast’s district should be red enough to protect him from a blue wave, but Coast Guard Reserve Lt. Cmdr. James Martin is making a credible run as a Democrat, as long as he can get past fellow Democrat Bernard Taylor in the primary.
The 21st District includes all of Martin County (Stuart) as well as all of St. Lucie County (Port St. Lucie), which is more than twice as populous as Martin. To the south, about one-third of the district’s population resides in the northern precincts of Palm Beach County, including Palm Beach Gardens. In Jupiter, a large concentration of professional golfers live amid lush greenery and plush mansions. In 2024, Trump won the district, 58%-41%.
House District 22: Open (Lois Frankel, D, is running in a different district)
The 22nd District saw such major changes from redistricting that Frankel decided to run in another district. Today, almost half of the population of the new 22nd is in Broward County, with another quarter in Palm Beach County. The district also stretches across the state to Collier County, taking in Republican exurbs of Naples. Trump would have won under the new lines, 55%-41%, whereas Harris won the previous iteration, 52%-47%.
On the Republican side, Michael Carbonara, a deep-pocketed biotech entrepreneur, is the biggest name in the primary, with four other GOP hopefuls also running. In a strong Democratic year, the 22nd might be on the fringes of competitiveness; in 2020, Biden would have won the redrawn district, 51%-48%. Two Democrats are running in the primary, Pia Dandiya, a former executive with Apple, and attorney Kaysia Earley. Dandiya has put together some impressive fundraising totals, leading Democrats to think she has a shot at the seat.
The Almanac of American Politics Substack rates this contest a Modest Republican Lean.
House District 23: Open (Jared Moskowitz, D, is running in a different district)
This is the seat where Frankel is running. She is heavily favored but first must get past two Democratic primary challengers.
The 23rd District is the only district located entirely within Palm Beach County, though smaller portions of the county are divided among three other districts. The 23rd runs south of West Palm Beach to encompass the coastal cities of Lake Worth Beach, Boynton Beach and Delray Beach, which is home to a large Haitian community. Redistricting made the 23rd more of a Democratic bastion; Harris would have won it in 2024, 56%-43%.
House District 24: Open (Frederica Wilson, D, is retiring)
This solidly blue district has a seven-way primary led by state Sen. Shevrin Jones. It also includes Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert; Kendrick Meek Jr., namesake son of a former congressman; and former Miami-Dade County Commissioner Jean Monestime.
The 24th District includes portions of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. It is 48 percent Black and 41 percent Hispanic. Harris would have won under the new lines, 69%-30%, surpassing the redrawn 20th as the strongest Democratic district in Florida.
House District 25: Open (Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D, is running in a different district)
This district is where Moskowitz chose to run after the remap, and it has a good chance of being Florida’s most closely contested district in November. The 25th is largely a coastal district stretching from southern Palm Beach County to Miami Beach. Under the new lines, the district shifted from a 50%-48% victory for Harris to a 54%-45% win for Trump, although in 2020, Trump would have lost the redrawn district, 52%-47%. Moskowitz has a shot, given his political skills, some maverick stances and his pre-congressional tenure as state emergency management chief under DeSantis. He will first need to defeat a challenger from his left — democratic socialist Oliver Larkin, who successfully lobbied to block the Florida AFL-CIO from issuing a statewide endorsement of Moskowitz. (Moskowitz has received other labor endorsements, and the district’s large Jewish population makes this a harder lift for a democratic socialist than some other districts where such candidates critical of Israel have won Democratic primaries.)
Meanwhile, five Republicans are vying for the nomination in what has become a somewhat contentious primary; they include Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer and former state Rep. George Moraitis.
The Almanac of American Politics Substack rates this contest a Pure Toss-up.
House District 27: Maria Elvira Salazar, R
Salazar has benefited from a sharp Republican shift among South Florida Hispanics in recent elections, but she could experience reduced margins in 2026. She also faces a big-name Democratic candidate, former CBS Miami anchor Eliott Rodriguez, though he’s had a relatively low profile in recent months. (Salazar herself was a local TV journalist before entering politics.) Also running as a Democrat is Robin Peguero, a former attorney with the congressional Jan. 6 investigative committee.
The 27th is one of Miami-Dade’s three Hispanic-majority districts, and it was largely unchanged by the 2026 redistricting. It follows Calle Ocho from Little Havana west to heavily Hispanic West Miami and Westchester. To the south, it includes large portions of Kendall. Along Biscayne Bay, the district sweeps up many of metro Miami’s high-income residential areas, including Coral Gables and the University of Miami campus. Offshore, connected by causeways, is Key Biscayne, with many of its high-rise apartments owned by Latino immigrants and their second-generation offspring.
Democrats are hoping for a large swing among Latino voters who have become disenchanted with Trump, especially non-Cubans.
Wyoming
Governor: Open (Mark Gordon, R, is term limited)
In the GOP primary, Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder has received Trump’s endorsement, but first she’ll have to get past state Sen. and former House Speaker Eric Barlow, 2022 candidate Brent Brien and firearms dealer Curt Blake. Degenfelder has taken a pro-MAGA approach, in contrast to the more establishment-oriented Barlow.
Democrats today are a non-factor in Wyoming. The Almanac of American Politics Substack rates this contest Safe Republican.
Secretary of state: Open (Chuck Gray, R, is running for the U.S. House)
Republicans have several credentialed candidates, including state Rep. Rachel Williams, former state elections director C.J. Young and Converse County (Douglas) Commissioner Robert Short. Whoever wins the GOP primary should have smooth sailing in November.
U.S. Senate (Open; Cynthia Lummis, R, is retiring)
At-large U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman is the heavy favorite to succeed Lummis, though former Kirby Mayor Sam Mead, the nephew of former GOP Gov. Matt Mead, is also running.
The Almanac of American Politics Substack rates this contest Safe Republican.
U.S. House At-Large (Open; Harriet Hageman, R, is running for Senate)
The Republican primary seems wide open. Top candidates include former Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow; Senate President Bo Biteman; businessman Steve Friess; Secretary of State Chuck Gray; billionaire Reid Rasner; and former state legislator Keith Goodenough. The leading Democrat is former state Sen. Lisa Kinney, but whoever wins the Republican nomination is essentially a shoo-in for November.
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Previewing the Aug. 18 primaries – Substack
