From the time that President Donald Trump endorsed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds for Governor, Florida Republicans have wrestled with how to handle inevitability long before the first vote was cast.
Gov. Ron DeSantis, who became Governor in large part because Trump backed him, found his efforts to clear a lane for First Lady Casey DeSantis frustrated.
The Governor said Donalds, a longtime ally who helped him prep for his own debates in the 2018 Governor’s race, hadn’t been part of the battles against the left. But Casey DeSantis was harmed irrecoverably from the optics of Hope Florida Foundation money acquired from a Medicaid settlement being funneled to political committees in 2024.
Donalds quickly consolidated support. Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk signed on, as did a majority of state and federal legislators, the Florida Cabinet and Florida Sheriffs, among many others. Some of that was because of the Trump factor, but a lot of it came down to the Brooklyn native and Florida State graduate’s affinity for relationship building.
Despite the establishment folding in behind Donalds, other candidates decided to shoot their shot.
Among them was former House Speaker Paul Renner of Northeast Florida, who jumped in last September, in a move DeSantis decried as “ill-advised.”
Renner, a military veteran and a former state prosecutor, represented Palm Coast for eight years through 2024 and worked closely with DeSantis when he led the Florida House. DeSantis then appointed Renner to the State University System Board of Governors.
While he recently amended his position to say Renner would be a “good Governor” if elected, the more than 10 months DeSantis’ former legislative ally was left in the wilderness destroyed any chance the Governor’s former legislative partner had to get some traction.
And then there was the “Chuck Norris of Florida Politics,” Lt. Gov. Jay Collins.
Collins, a retired Green Beret, was first elected to the Senate in 2022 with DeSantis’ strong support, after a military career that included earning a Purple Heart and a Bronze Star while losing his leg. He was appointed in August, months after former Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez resigned to become President of Florida International University. And Collins launched his run for Governor soon thereafter.
But it was quickly revealed heroism forged in combat didn’t translate to an ability to navigate Florida’s complicated political landscape.
DeSantis staffers have spent much of the Summer trashing Collins, with the claim predicated on alleged abusive language about longtime staffer Taryn Fenske, who was working on the Governor’s political team last year in anticipation of him pushing hard for the passage of this year’s property tax amendment.
While Collins dismissed those “factless, baseless claims,” other allegations cropped up, including burner accounts said to be operated by Second Lady Layla Collins that were critical of the Governor.
Beyond the incompatibility of the LG and longtime DeSantis employees, the Collins campaign committed other unforced errors, such as a social media post critical of GOP megadonor Ken Griffin, after Griffin gave a Donalds political committee $10 million.
That post was retracted quickly, but the damage was already done, in the context of so many other unforced errors this year.
The other major candidate, James Fishback, careened from crisis to crisis in his populist campaign targeted toward the young and the disaffected.
Fishback was recently rebuked by the Justice Department for lying about Donalds being investigated for federal sex trafficking, the culmination of a string of incidents that would have killed campaigns in previous cycles.
Fishback owes his former hedge fund employer, Greenlight Capital, more than $1.3 million. A federal Magistrate Judge in January ordered Fishback to turn over Azoria stock certificates and dozens of personal luxury purchases to the U.S. Marshals Service to satisfy a separate $229,000 judgment, which Fishback has said he won’t pay.
He also lost an arbitration bid against Greenlight this past Spring after failing to participate in the case. And his former law firm, Abrams Fensterman, moved to withdraw from representing him over more than $150,000 in unpaid bills.
While Fishback survived a legal challenge from Collins’ camp to his claim of Florida residency last month, he admitted to having voted in D.C. in 2020 and held a homestead exemption at that point.
Fishback’s legal troubles don’t end there. A former debate champion who says Fishback’s nonprofit, Incubate Debate, still owes her $8,000 in promised scholarship money filed a small-claims suit in Broward County last week.
Donalds opted not to debate opponents this cycle, which they and the current Governor objected to, albeit to no avail.
The Congressman said that would “elevate” the competition.
With polls showing him supported by nearly half of Republicans, with other candidates in the teens or below, that strategy may pay off Tuesday.
Still, questions remain about how he will unite the party. Some question whether he’s just a campaign conservative and whether he will ultimately deviate from the DeSantis path.
Others have doubts about his support for data centers, a deeply unpopular issue among voters in both parties due to the perception they will squander natural resources and encroach upon homes.
Those issues, and others, likely will be litigated starting Aug. 19.
A.G. Gancarski has been the Northeast Florida correspondent for Florida Politics since 2014. His work also can be seen in the Washington Post, the New York Post, the Washington Times, and National Review, among other publications. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski
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