Within hours, we will know who earned the Republican nomination in the Governor’s race.
But what happened to get us there?
That’s the question. Or at least the one we can answer before Tuesday evening.
As we wait for votes to be counted, the race to be called, and the cascade of concession speeches and a victory rally, here’s a look at the major developments and story arcs that got us to the cusp of a new era in GOP politics.
We picked 25 of the biggest. Let us know what we might have missed:
— Musical chairs: The 2026 race could have been a lot more crowded had Marco Rubio and Matt Gaetz stayed in Congress. Rubio ended up one of the most consequential Secretaries of State in decades; Gaetz ended up a talk show host. The openings they left cleared the way for the CFO to go to the House and the AG to go to the Senate. That kept Jimmy Patronis and Ashley Moody out of the Governor’s race — and out of the way of the man the President wanted in the job.
— Ag in the bag: Wilton Simpson had enough money to run for Governor. The Trilby egg farmer and former Senate President won statewide four years ago. Yet there was never a real move toward a campaign, and tens of millions of dollars remain to be spent beating (checks notes) Matt the Welder. What are the Polymarket odds?
— Trump endorses Donalds: Yuge. The machine mobilized behind the man who helped Donald Trump make inroads with Black men and win all seven swing states in 2024. Tony Fabrizio gave early legitimacy to Byron Donalds, an ally of Susie Wiles in a way the incumbent Governor proved not to be. Trump reiterated the endorsement periodically, right down to the last week of the campaign — the final one retweeted by Democrat David Jolly. Hmmm.
— Town hall brawl: But being the President’s man isn’t all peaches and cream. Donalds decided to let members of his congressional district have their say about district issues, and given the visibility of his campaign, the event in June 2025 got tense at times. Some attendees were removed. Donalds flashed his temper, or his annoyance. The Congressman has done some audience Q&A sessions as a candidate since, but before more carefully curated crowds than that wild and woolly affair.
— Jay’s big day: Cynics may say the newcomer to Florida did little but hop from one campaign to another since he moved here in 2019 — or was it 2018? Whatever. Jay Collins, the former congressional candidate turned state Senator, was a Ron DeSantis loyalist in the Legislature, and his selection as LG looked like a reward for a job well done. The “Chuck Norris of Florida Politics” was high-profile from the start, including a trip to California to extradite truck driver Harjinder Singh. What could go wrong from there? Well …
— No case for Casey: First Lady Casey DeSantis was definitely trial-ballooned to continue a DeSantis dynasty. The Governor talked her up. She spoke to conservative groups such as the National Review Foundation. And she had Hope Florida — a résumé boost right up until the 2024 cycle, when a Medicaid settlement was funneled from the Hope Florida Foundation into political committees to kill constitutional amendments legalizing adult-use weed and relaxing abortion restrictions. The administration called the $10 million a “cherry on top” at the time. But they bought that sundae at the expense of an unprecedented campaign for someone with more political talent than her husband.
— James Fishback jumps in: We all laughed when he entered. We didn’t take him seriously. And we were right, in that someone with a trail of business lawsuits and a habit of race-baiting for basement-dwelling groypers is fundamentally unfit for office. Never mind getting smacked down by the Department of Justice for falsely saying Donalds was being probed for federal sex trafficking. But in the end, even after pissing hundreds of thousands of donor dollars down his leg, he probably won’t finish any worse than third Tuesday. The podcast circuit awaits. And he’ll always have his campaign-trail wife.
— Mori-torium: Even before he officially declared, former House Speaker Paul Renner may have doomed his candidacy by tangling with UF Board of Trustees Chair Mori Hosseini over presidential nominee Santa Ono. Ono did not make it through Renner’s Board of Governors, of course, so the Palm Coast Republican won that battle — but not before Hosseini revealed in a public forum that Renner wanted to be UF President. Fast forward a few months, Renner gets in, and, well, you won’t believe what happened next. Or maybe you will.
— ‘Governor of what’: If you’ve ever cleaned a fish, you have the visual representation of what happened when Gov. Ron DeSantis damned Renner’s “ill-advised” decision to enter the 2026 fray. The Governor eventually praised Renner’s policy chops and said he’d make a “good Governor” if only he had the juice to get over statewide, but it was too little, too late. Still, it’s nice to be remembered, right?
— ‘Never been part of the fight’: When DeSantis denounced Donalds for not helping kill the aforementioned abortion and weed amendments and joining his fight against the left, it was intended as a kill shot. Voters didn’t care, and the most politically potent Governor in Florida history came off in the end like just another quacking lame duck. It didn’t help that Donalds said the beef was really about him backing Trump in 2024.
— Debate deflate: The also-rans caviled, as did the Governor, but there was no reason at all for Donalds to “elevate” the field. And they all knew it.
— Participation trophy: Still, you can’t blame candidates for trying. There was the time Collins took off his prosthetic leg at a Panhandle presser, responding to Donalds’ argument that a debate shouldn’t be a “participation trophy,” and brandished it like a club toward the audience. It got attention, definitely. But for someone who could be charged with executive functions should something happen to DeSantis, it was a wild move, and not in keeping with most previous Governors of this state. Then again, how would Collins know who ran the state before DeSantis took over? Microfiche?
— There was always the podcast: The closest the field got to a debate among serious candidates was hosted by Patrick Bet-David, who may be best known in Florida for asking DeSantis whether he was wearing lifts when he ran for President. It was too long, too self-indulgent, and probably best remembered for Collins being compelled to admit he didn’t vote for the current Governor in 2018.
— D.C. blab: The residency case filed against Fishback was an interesting test of the law and how porous it is. Even though he admitted on the stand that he voted in the nation’s capital in 2020 — a move that legally required proof of residency — he skated through the trial, even with Anthony Sabatini as his lawyer. Home is where the heart is? The irony, of course, was the carpetbagger LG leading the charge.
— Staff clash: Speaking of the LG, who could have predicted how badly his appointment would go? Everyone’s heard the allegations about how he regarded trusted DeSantis staffer Taryn Fenske as a traitor for not getting the Governor’s donors and supporters to back him while he mulled a run. And then the allegations about Second Lady Layla Collinsusing burner social media accounts. The Collins camp denies all of it. But what a bad look.
— Autism allegations: Never a good idea to text a pal about your boss’s alleged mental condition. You never know when that pal may screenshot your thoughts and force you to do cleanup in the EOG. Ask Collins how he knows that.
— Delete everything: Christina Pushaw, the most provocative thinker on the EOG staff, was a beat all her own this cycle, beginning with an apparently short-lived alliance with Fishback that has been speculated about ever since — especially after she urged her former ally to purge their texts (he did not, alas). She praised Collins before she ultimately buried him, and was the only on-record corroboration of the LG’s Fenske flap. Believe me, we tried to get others on record, but it was background and off-record only. Back in the day, staffers were quieter about political campaigns. Times have changed, and that may be a key legacy of this administration.
— Ken-pitulation: Imagine, hypothetically of course, that you posted to your X account trolling Citadel’s Ken Griffin, the biggest donor in the state for Republicans and their causes. Then imagine you blamed it on a volunteer who may or may not have had access to the LG’s social media accounts. Then imagine three different spokespeople gave three different accounts of how the flub happened, Rashomon-style. You wouldn’t believe it could happen — if you hadn’t covered the Collins campaign, that is.
— The son: Speaking of looks, a big unanswered question about this campaign was the LG’s other son. While the Second Lady and their sons were on the trail, Collins’ first family was an object of speculation for a while. Tremayne Collinswent through much of his childhood separated from the LG, but still says he values his biological father. It was never made clear why Tremayne was not part of the campaign, but it remained a point of contention for certain Renner supporters.
— Cardillo crash: It’s rare that a spokesperson gets as much publicity as the candidate, but Collins’ valet John Cardillopulled it off. By the end of this, voters knew how much he was making a week ($20,000), tidbits about his dating life, and more than enough to speculate about his mental state. You’re nobody in this state if you haven’t been slimed or smeared by this low-rent Lee Atwater. Glad his calendar clears up this week — he needs the rest.
— Poll-verized: Public polls told a consistent story: Donalds and everyone else fighting for scraps and playing for pride. But the private polls and the straw polls? A different matter. Whether it was the ridiculous product pushed by Fishback showing him and Donalds in a dead heat head to head, the David Jay Wolfson fantasies of Collins surging at the end, or Renner popping up with some random straw poll triumph, the campaigns found ways to outdo themselves until voters started casting ballots. Congrats?
— So many endorsements: True to form for any establishment candidate with political history in the state, people lined up to endorse Donalds even if the Governor didn’t. Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk signed on, as did a majority of state and federal legislators, the Florida Cabinet and Florida Sheriffs. People can win without endorsements — Rick Scottin 2010, for example — but it helps if they can self-finance at that level. None of the also-rans can.
— Million dollar man: Donalds was very blunt when James O’Keefe asked what it takes to win the Governor’s race: at least $40 million in the General Election, and $80 million total. People may want to complain about the role of money in politics. But there is nothing legislatively on the horizon that will threaten it, meaning the dash for dollars will always be the most meaningful horserace in the long run.
— Data centers/AI: Donalds has played it safe with virtually every aspect of his Defending the Florida Dream campaign, deviating from consensus only on whether Florida should have hyperscaler data centers. His argument: It’s here or China. Opponents who want moratoriums or outright bans have lit him up for it, and he devoted parts of his closing rally speeches to the fight. “There ain’t no bans coming” is a gutsy message in this environment. Is it the right one? Donalds’ donors think so — he’s gotten big industry support.
— Uninvited: The world will never know what it would have looked like if Fishback had ended up at the Republican Party of Florida’s Sunshine State Showdown. The candidates were kept hermetically sealed from each other throughout the event, but if U.S. Rep. Randy Fine hadn’t won the power struggle to keep Fishback out, there likely would have been some sort of pro-wrestling-style run-in during Donalds’ remarks, and other stunts besides. What might have been?
Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics contributed to this report.
A.G. Gancarski has been the Northeast Florida correspondent for Florida Politics since 2014. His work also can be seen in the Washington Post, the New York Post, the Washington Times, and National Review, among other publications. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *
Florida Politics is a statewide, new media platform covering campaigns, elections, government, policy, and lobbying in Florida. This platform and all of its content are owned by Extensive Enterprises Media.
Publisher: Peter Schorsch @PeterSchorschFL
Contributors & reporters: Phil Ammann, Drew Dixon, Roseanne Dunkelberger, Liam Fineout, A.G. Gancarski, Jesse Mendoza, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, Cole Pepper, Gabrielle Russon, Jesse Scheckner, Janelle Taylor, Drew Wilson, and Mike Wright.
Digital Services Manager: Daniel Dean
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @PeterSchorschFL
Phone: (727) 642-3162
Address: 204 37th Avenue North #182
St. Petersburg, Florida 33704
© Copyright by Extensive-Enterprises 2026. All rights reserved. STAFF LOGIN
