Today’s newsletter features:
The Frontrunner: Previewing 9 races to watch in Florida’s juicy slate of Aug. 18 primary elections.
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.
Quick summary:
Polls disagree to what extent Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds might waltz to the GOP nomination for governor in Florida, or if James Fishback might actually have a shot of pulling off an upset.
The Left seeks another win in Florida’s light-red 25th District, where DSA member Oliver Larkin aims to primary Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz.
The Carpetbagger Contest in Florida’s 19th District features six candidates in the Republican primary who have sought office outside of Florida.
The busy August primary season continues apace on Tuesday, when Florida, Wyoming, and Alaska decide which candidates will advance to their respective general elections. Most of the action is in Florida, the third-most populous state in the country. The Sunshine State has statewide primaries of interest for governor and U.S. Senate, but also a bevy of races involving the state’s newly-drawn congressional map. With apologies to the two western states, we will focus this preview on nine races in Florida. But there are interesting U.S. Senate, gubernatorial, and U.S. House races in Wyoming and Alaska, too!
Polls close: 7:00 p.m. Eastern in most of the state, 8:00 p.m. in the Panhandle
Top races to watch: U.S. Senate; 7th, 9th, 14th, 19th, 20th, 22nd, 25th congressional districts; governor
Two-term Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited, and it remains to be seen if the 2024 presidential candidate has further national ambitions. What we can say is that the Republican primary in the race to succeed DeSantis as governor is arguably the highest-profile nomination contest on Tuesday’s election slate.
Third-term Rep. Byron Donalds has long been the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. All the way back in February 2025, President Donald Trump endorsed Donalds’s gubernatorial bid, doing so even before the congressman had declared his candidacy. If elected, Donalds would make history as the first Black governor in Florida’s history. And he has built a huge war chest, as his campaign and allied PAC had raised a whopping $111 million as mid-August.
In the wake of Trump’s endorsement, many other prominent possible candidates, including Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis, decided against running. Donalds has the backing of most major GOP officeholders in Florida — save Gov. DeSantis, who has been critical of Donalds’s candidacy. Still, Trump’s endorsement hasn’t been a golden ticket in gubernatorial primaries — four of his 12 endorsed contenders in open Republican primaries have lost so far this cycle.
Nevertheless, Donalds looks likely to win heading into primary day. In Decision Desk HQ’s primary polling average, Donalds leads with 37%, about double the 18% earned by investor James Fishback and 17% garnered by Lt. Gov. Jay Collins. Former state House Speaker Paul Renner is in fourth with 8%.
However, that lead is not as large as you might expect. DeSantis’s opposition to Donalds has loomed over the race, though the governor has not endorsed Collins, his own second-in-command. The biggest headline generator has been Fishback, who has bombarded the campaign with controversial statements, including racist shots aimed at Donalds. For instance, he claimed Donalds would turn Florida “into a Section 8 ghetto,” referencing public housing. He also labeled Donalds a “slave” to corporate interests and a “DEI hire” in Congress. Donalds has dismissed Fishback as someone always making a provocative statement that “just plays to the algorithm.”
Still, just how close this race is very much depends on which poll you look at. Of the six surveys of likely voters conducted since mid-July, four have found Donalds at around 50% with a big lead. But the other two have put him in the low 30s, including the most recent one from fresh-faced pollster The Public Sentiment Institute. That poll, which really puts the organization out on a limb, found Donalds only narrowly in first place ahead of Fishback, 31%-28% — easily Fishback’s best poll in the final month of the campaign.
Primary polling can be difficult — just ask Michigan and Wisconsin pollsters over the past couple of weeks. But one way or another, someone is going to end up with a significant amount of egg on their face for substantially misreading the primary electorate. In November, the GOP primary winner will very likely face former Rep. David Jolly, an ex-Republican who is a clear favorite in the Democratic primary.
Edit (2:30 p.m., Monday, Aug. 17): After publishing this on Monday, I discovered that an earlier poll from TPSI was clandestinely sponsored by Fishback’s campaign. If that was also the case for TPSI’s August poll, they are a) stupid and b) evaporated any droplets of credibility they may have hoped to retain ahead of November. Anyway…
The other significant statewide race on the Florida docket is the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, with the winner in line to be an underdog against appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody. The conventional wisdom about the Democratic race is that it’s already over. After all, retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman has raised $16.3 million, even more than Moody’s $11.3 million. Vindman has national notoriety on his side, as the former member of the National Security Council testified in Trump’s 2019 impeachment trial.
But Vindman’s candidacy may seem stronger in D.C. than in Florida, where he faces progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon for the Democratic nomination. Nixon has gained a pugnacious reputation, having earned a formal reprimand for a protest using a bullhorn that briefly held up the GOP-led legislature’s efforts to pass the state’s new congressional map. By comparison, Vindman only moved to Florida in 2023 and lacks the political roots that Nixon has grown as a Jacksonville native. Vindman certainly has far more money than Nixon, though, as she had raised $975,000 as of July 29 — about 1/16th of Vindman’s haul. The only public poll of the race, from Change Research for Freedom Project USA, found Vindman ahead of Nixon, 34%-24%. But that poll was conducted way back in early July.
Speaking of the map that Nixon demonstrated against, Florida’s new congressional lines have influenced many high-profile U.S. House primaries happening on Tuesday. We will dig into seven districts, which are shaded in gray in the table below. That table also provides you with district-level data on incumbents, the 2024 presidential vote, and the favored party’s probability of winning the district in the Decision Desk HQ 2026 forecast as of Aug. 14. We’ll begin in South Florida and then move north.
We’ll start with the Democratic primary in the new 25th District, a seat stretching from Boca Raton to Miami Beach that Trump would have carried 54%-45% in 2024. After the GOP-drawn map targeted Democratic incumbents in South Florida, moderate Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz decided to seek reelection in this seat, which contains about half of his old 23rd District’s population. Although his new seat has a red lean, Moskowitz ran ahead of then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race.
But before Moskowitz fights to retain this seat in November, he has to defeat left-wing primary challenger Oliver Larkin, a union organizer and member of the Democratic Socialists of America. Larkin has argued that Moskowitz is too moderate and bipartisan. He’s has also criticized Moskowitz, who is Jewish, for being too pro-Israel, while Moskowitz claims that Larkin is embracing support from antisemitic forces. Around one-quarter of the district’s population is Jewish and, as in much of Florida, the electorate is pretty old — both factors that may limit Larkin’s competitiveness. Moskowitz is favored, but the contest could be close. A late July internal poll for Moskowitz’s campaign found him leading 56%-20%, but an early August poll for Larkin’s campaign found the two candidates running about even.
Across the aisle, the Republican primary in the 25th District looks very up in the air. The two leading candidates appear to be Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer and businessman Dan Franzese, though former state Rep. George Moraitis could also be competitive. But Singer went negative on Franzese in late July, casting his opponent as a carpetbagger, “repeat loser,” and backer of “weak energy policies.” Singer leads the fundraising race with $2.2 million raised — about one-third from his own pocket — while Franzese has self-funded much of the $1.5 million he’s gathered. A Franzese internal poll from early August found him leading the field with 28%, while Moraitis and Singer were both around 20%.
Next door, the new 22nd District is another seat targeted by Republicans, who redrew it as a 55%-44% Trump seat. Tellingly, no Democratic incumbent ran here, although Moskowitz and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz each represented more than one-fifth of the new constituency. Hoping to hold it, Democrats have rallied around educator Pia Dandiya, so the main question on Tuesday is who will win the Republican primary in this seat.
Three contenders seem best-positioned to win the GOP nod. University chancellor Belinda Keiser may have the most institutional support, having served in an array of appointed positions in the administrations of DeSantis and his Republican predecessor, now-Sen. Rick Scott. However, fintech entrepreneur Michael Carbonara has outraised Keiser $6.3 million to $3.8 million, with both having substantially self-funded their campaigns. Groups backing Carbonara, including the campaign arm of the Club for Growth, have spent $1 million backing his effort, too. Another self-funder, real estate executive Casey Askar ($2.6 million), is back for another try after finishing third behind Donalds in the GOP primary for the old 19th District in 2020 — a victory that put Donalds on the path to his 2026 gubernatorial bid.
Tucked between the 22nd and 25th districts, the redrawn 20th District is a plurality-Black seat. Given the constituency’s demographics, the Democratic primary has understandably attracted four noteworthy Black candidates. But it’s the fifth major contender, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, whose presence has generated the most headlines. Having previously represented safe blue turf before the redistricting scramble, Wasserman Schultz decided to run in this Harris 68%-31% seat instead of one of the red-leaning alternatives. However, she currently represents only 2% of the new 20th’s population, and her bid has infuriated some local Black leaders who view her as an interloper in a seat that should be represented by a Black Democrat.
In early June, an effort to rally behind one Black candidate failed. This left a crowded field that could help elect Wasserman Schultz. Among the other candidates is ex-Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who resigned from the current 20th District in April after a House Ethics Committee report found she had illegally shifted money from her family’s company into her campaign account. Progressive activist Elijah Manley, meanwhile, has tried to seize on the Left’s rising success. He’s the only candidate besides Wasserman Schultz to raise at least $1 million, though his $1.1 million is far below her $3.3 million. Former Broward County Mayor Dale Holness is also running, having barely lost to Cherfilus-McCormick in the Democratic primary for a 2022 special in the old 20th District. Lastly, hip hop artist-turned-community-activist Luther Campbell of 2 Live Crew fame is mounting a bid.
For fans of electoral curiosities, the most entertaining contest on Tuesday is the GOP primary in the southwest Florida-based 19th District, a safely red seat left open by Donalds’s gubernatorial bid. This election is truly The Carpetbagger Contest. Of the 10 Republicans on the ballot, six (!) previously ran for the U.S. House in other states. And two are even former members of Congress: ex-Reps. Chris Collins of New York and Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina. Both left office under a cloud of scandal — Collins with a resignation and Cawthorn with a primary defeat.
But now the favorite looks to be someone who lost two congressional bids in Illinois: MAHA activist Catalina Lauf, who received Trump’s endorsement last week. Lauf lost the 2022 general election for Illinois’s 11th District and the 2020 Republican primary in Illinois’s 14th District. In that latter race, she lost out to Jim Oberweis, an Illinois state senator with a history of electoral defeats that earned him the nickname the “Milk Dud.” Naturally, Oberweis is also among the candidates on the Republican primary ballot in Florida’s 19th District.
Moving beyond South Florida (takes a breath), the other three Sunshine State primaries of interest all sit along the I-4 corridor across Central Florida. Two are Democratic-held seats that the Republicans targeted on the new congressional map.
In the 14th District in and around Tampa, Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor finds herself running in a redrawn seat that Trump would have carried about 54%-44%. However, the Decision Desk HQ forecast rates this seat as a toss-up, even leaning ever so slightly toward Democrats. The crowded Republican primary contest will mainly come down to former state Reps. Kevin Steele and Mike Beltran, each of whom have self-funded more than $2 million of their campaign war chests. It’s not clear that much separates the two conservative contenders: An early August survey for Beltran’s campaign found him only leading Steele 29%-26%, with no other candidate reaching 10%.
To the east, in the Orlando area, the revamped 9th District is now a redder seat that would have backed Trump 58%-41% in 2024. Despite the tougher new lines, Democratic Rep. Darren Soto is seeking reelection here. As for who will face him, the crowded Republican primary looks wide open. Former Osceola County School Board member Thomas Chalifoux lost to Soto under the old blue-leaning lines in 2024, and he has the most money after self-funding almost all of $3.1 million. Indian River educator Dan Green ($1.3 million) and nonprofit leader Jorge Martinez ($855,000) have also self-funded for the most part. But Okeechobee rancher Ben Butler has raised nearly all of his $387,000 from donors. A Victory Insights poll conducted in early August found the four leading candidates all attracting between about 12% and 14%.
Farther east in the 7th District along the Atlantic coast, scandal-tarred Republican Rep. Cory Mills faces multiple reelection challenges. Mills faces an investigation by the Department of Justice into his finances. That development comes on top of a House Ethics Committee investigation into Mills regarding allegations of dating violence and campaign finance violations. In 2025, an ex-girlfriend got a restraining order against Mills. Facing these allegations, Mills has meaningful opposition in the Republican primary from former broadcast journalist Ryan Elijah. An early August survey from St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics found Mills ahead of Elijah about 30%-14%. But a mid-August poll from Capital Strategic Partners found Elijah leading 44%-27%.
Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping the damaged Mills wins renomination to help make this Trump 55%-43% seat more competitive in November. But the Democratic primary features an ideological clash between moderate former NASA Chief of Staff Bale Dalton and progressive Navy veteran Marialana Kinter. Dalton has outraised Kinter $1.4 million to $565,000, and he’s received $700,000 in outside spending support from the campaign arm of the Blue Dog Coalition, the most moderate ideological caucus among Democrats in Congress. Yet Kinter could benefit from the Left’s surging success in Democratic primaries. One other Democrat who almost certainly will lose is former Rep. Alan Grayson, now a perennial candidate who has met defeat in four congressional or state legislative primaries since he lost badly in the 2016 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.
On DDHQ’s Votes portal, make sure to add these upcoming races to your watchlist:
August 18
Alaska top-four primary including U.S. Senate)
Florida primary (including Governor)
Wyoming primary (including U.S. Senate)
August 25
Oklahoma primary runoff (including Governor)
South Carolina special Republican runoff for U.S. Senate
September 1
Massachusetts primary (including U.S. Senate)
Check out our 2026 Primary Primer for more information about the regular primaries happening in 2026.
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🗳️ Is Florida's GOP primary for governor actually competitive?🍊 – Decision Desk HQ | Substack
