Democrat David Jolly is celebrating another upgrade of his odds in next month’s gubernatorial election.
The Cook Political Report is moving his race against Byron Donalds to “lean Republican,” arguing that an unfriendly political environment for Republicans may offer a leg up.
The Governor’s race in Texas is also getting upgraded, and Cook’s calculus is similar in both races.
“We are moving two more governors’ races in favor of Democrats in Florida and Texas, further expanding their political map as the party takes advantage of President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings in races up and down the ballot,” the outlet said.
“Cash-flush Republicans are still favored in both pricey states, which we now rate as Lean Republican, but given the grim political environment for the GOP, we can’t rule out the possibility of an upset in one or both contests, even in states Trump carried by double digits just two years ago.”
This continues a hot streak for Jolly in terms of national perception of his viability.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections had already moved the race to Lean Republican.
Decision Desk HQ calls the race a toss-up.
The announcement comes at a fortuitous time, given that Vice President JD Vance is in Florida on Thursday to rally for Donalds and other Republicans. Trump has also pledged to rally in Florida between now and Election Day.
While the political dynamic is favorable for Democrats, the mechanics of victory are more muddled.
The Democratic Governors Association and the Democratic National Committee have stayed away from Florida. That has frustrated Jolly, who recently dodged a question from Florida Politics about whether national disinvestment in his race is because Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon got the Senate nomination.
“Obviously, it’s a competitive environment nationally, and everybody has some hard decisions to make,” Jolly said. “What I do know is we’re not only in a position to win this race, I believe if the election were tonight, we would win it.”
Between his political committee and his campaign account, Donalds has reported raising nearly $130 million through Sept. 18, retaining nearly $45 million. That dwarfs Jolly’s activity. The former Congressman from Pinellas County raised less than $16 million through the same date, with roughly $4.5 million on hand.
While Jolly believes he benefits from the current “change-election cycle,” he acknowledges the need for “investment” from national groups.
Jolly’s visibility problem is compounded by his inability to agree with Donalds on debate structure or format, so ad buys loom even larger than they might in a more traditional cycle where candidates face off on the same stage at the same time.
A.G. Gancarski has been the Northeast Florida correspondent for Florida Politics since 2014. His work also can be seen in the Washington Post, the New York Post, the Washington Times, and National Review, among other publications. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski
October 1, 2026 at 12:51 pm
Thank goodness… The majority of FL can’t afford another Republican Gov. The inability to afford anything, insurance for your home and then combining that with the destructive Anti-Woke climate in Education, is just not a healthy environment for anyone. People are on edge 24/7, and the prospect of another Republican Grifter will be Florida’s last stand. The developers will circle the state parks, ICE will line the streets, and the Proud Boys will be teaching in the classrooms! Think about it. Think before you vote. People will leave in mass, including me!
Reply
October 1, 2026 at 12:52 pm
Thank goodness… The majority of FL can’t afford another Republican Gov. The inability to afford anything, insurance for your home and then combining that with the destructive Anti-Woke climate in Education, is just not a healthy environment for anyone. People are on edge 24/7, and the prospect of another Republican Grifter will be Florida’s last stand. The developers will circle the state parks, ICE will line the streets, and the Proud Boys will be teaching in the classrooms! Think about it. Think before you vote. People will leave in mass, including me!
Reply
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