A new polling memo from a Democratic political consultant says the Governor’s race is too close to call with less than three weeks to go before voters decide between Byron Donalds and David Jolly.
Christian Ulvert of EDGE Communications and Michael Worley and Martin Page of MDW Communications see the Governor’s race as a “statistical tie.”
Donalds, the Republican candidate, has 46% support. Jolly, the Democratic nominee, has 44%. A tenth of voters are undecided.
The survey shows both candidates with matching favorable ratings of +3, but Donalds is better defined than Jolly.
The survey found that 44% of respondents regard the Naples Congressman favorably, while 41% see him unfavorably.
Jolly’s favorable rating is 38%, and his unfavorable number is 35%.
The pollsters argue that Donalds’ unfavorable number “limits his ceiling,” while Jolly has “room to grow” with the 14% of voters who “never heard of him.”
“Jolly outperforms the Democratic baseline,” according to the pollsters.
“He trails by 2.1 in a Trump +10 sample, roughly even with the R+2.3 generic ballot and 3 points better than the Senate ticket.”
The online poll of 2,351 likely voters ran Oct. 4-10 and has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
The memo counters surveys from Stetson University and Donalds’ own campaign that show a bigger Republican lead. Stetson has Donalds +11 while the released internal from his camp shows Donalds +6. A polling average from Decision Desk has Donalds out in front by 5 points.
A.G. Gancarski has been the Northeast Florida correspondent for Florida Politics since 2014. His work also can be seen in the Washington Post, the New York Post, the Washington Times, and National Review, among other publications. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski
October 14, 2026 at 2:15 pm
This seems way more realistic than that garbage Stetson U poll. This is a completely different environment than 2022 or 2024.
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October 14, 2026 at 7:47 pm
Good comment there, Stark,
the main thing white folks don’t understand is us Black Folk like Black Democrats. Put the choice of a reasonable Black man and an off the chain Honkey we gonna vote the Reasonable Black man.
Snydely Whiplash
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