Hispanic voters aren’t a monolith, and perhaps nowhere in the U.S. is that more apparent than in Florida, where they’re slightly more inclined to support Democrat David Jolly for Governor while also overwhelmingly in favor of Amendment 3.
That’s according to new, GOP-aligned polling figures from HispanicsVote.org, based on a text-message survey by pollster David Wolfson.
Its finding: In the Governor’s race, Jolly enjoys a nearly 5-point lead over Republican Byron Donalds (43% to 38%), while nearly 11% of respondents said they’re backing another candidate and 8% remain undecided.
That leftward break is at least partially attributable to sentiment about affordability. Inflation and everyday costs topped respondents’ list of worries, with 51% counting the issue among their top three concerns, followed by government waste and corruption (39%) and healthcare costs (32%).
More than half (54%) believe Florida is headed in the wrong direction, a slightly smaller share than those who said the same about the U.S. as a whole (56%). Sixty-two percent feel they’re worse off now than they were a year ago.
Most (52%) also think the classic American Dream is no longer attainable.
When asked whether they support Amendment 3 — which would raise the homestead exemption on non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, halve the annual assessment-growth cap on non-homesteaded property to 5% and let the Legislature create a plan to eliminate non-school property taxes on homesteads — Hispanic voters are far more supportive than the general populace.
A whopping 72% back the proposal, compared to 50% of voters statewide who do so, according to a recent poll from the University of North Florida. The measure needs 60% support to pass next month, but has mostly been short of that number in surveys.
Hispanic voters have also cooled on Florida’s two best-known Republican officeholders. President Donald Trump is nearly 11 points underwater with the group, while Gov. Ron DeSantis holds a favorability rating of -4.
“Hispanics in Florida are watching the cost of living, the property tax fight, and whether anyone is serious about making the American Dream real again, and they are in a strong position to decide 2026. Any candidate who writes off the Hispanic vote this November would be making a grave error,” said HispanicsVote.org President Barbara Casanova, National Secretary and Florida Chair of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly.
“I will be advocating for more solutions to alleviate financial pressures on our citizens in the session, and I guarantee a Governor who can address rising prices at the pumps with a temporary reduction in the State Fuel Tax to further alleviate financial pressures will find they have a loyal voting block (sic) for years to come.”
Wolfson, a political analytics lecturer at Columbia University, surveyed 760 Hispanic voters by text Oct. 14-18, 44% of whom identified as Republicans, compared to 30% who said they belong to the Democratic Party and 26% who said they belong to a third party or have no party affiliation. The survey has a 4-percentage-point margin of error.
The largest share of respondents (27%) said they were of Cuban heritage, followed by Puerto Rican (20%), Mexican (11%), Dominican (7%) and Colombian (7%). No other group cracked 5%.
Nearly 49% of respondents identified as moderate-leaning or traditional conservatives, while 22% said their political views align most with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement. Meanwhile, 17% said they were moderate or liberal Democrats, and nearly 13% said they have progressive views.
Miami-Dade and Broward counties accounted for nearly half of all respondents (48%).
Election Day is Nov. 3. Early voting is underway.
Jesse Scheckner has covered South Florida with a focus on Miami-Dade County since 2012. His work has been recognized by the Hearst Foundation, Society of Professional Journalists, Florida Society of News Editors, Florida MMA Awards and Miami New Times. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @JesseScheckner.
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